Canadian Funding Corp Reviews CMHC Affordable Housing Reports

Canada’s housing market has become so much more grounded since the ugly property bust of the last recession that this time around it is one of the most resilient sectors of the economic downturn.The lessons learned from the housing bust of the early 1990s helped prevent Canada from being tempted down the subprime path that devastated the United States and, combined with record low interest rates and government stimulus, has caused the impact of the latest slump to be less severe and relatively short lived, figures released Tuesday underscore.”The turnaround in Canadian housing this year might be the single most surprising turnabout we’ve seen in any economic indicator I can think of,” said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. “The fact we saw a little bit of a rebound isn’t a total shock, but the extent of it is nothing short of amazing.”Sales of existing homes in June were up a seasonally adjusted 8.7 per cent from the previous month, marking a fifth straight increase, Canadian Real Estate Association figures showed. Sales were 17.9 per cent higher than a year earlier. Resales activity rocketed along at a record pace in the second quarter, surging by 31.5 per cent from the first quarter of 2009.Porter said the results were “galaxies away” from the yearly decline of about 40 per cent registered at the start of the year.Millan Mulraine, an economics strategist at TD Securities, said record-low mortgage rates were a key difference between the housing bust of the 1990s — when interest rates were on the increase — and now. The ’90s housing downturn, the recovery from which took a decade, resulted in Canada introducing tighter lending standards, which helped prevent house prices becoming too overblown prior to U.S. subprime crisis.Mulraine said that while house prices, sales and construction suffered along with the rest of the recession-struck economy this time around, the market’s relatively stable condition and the relative health of Canada’s banking sector created an opportunity for homebuyers to take advantage of record low interest rates, more affordable prices and government stimulus. The rise in sales activity as well as a drop in new listings have caused the inventory of unsold homes to fall to 4.2 months of supply, the lowest level since August 2007 and well below the peak of 12.8 months hit at the beginning of the year. “Inventory levels are still high in many markets, but fewer new listings and rising sales activity suggests that the selection of homes available for sale may shrink as the year progresses,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist at CREA. “The supply of homes up for sale needs to be drawn down further before average price increases become more widespread among local markets.”The average price of homes sold in June was up 1.7 per cent from a year earlier, skewed higher by rising demand in some of the country’s most expensive markets like Toronto and Vancouver.Klump said monthly sales activity would likely not continue on an unbroken rise, but activity in the second half of this year would “meet or surpass” the results of the first half. Other sectors of the housing market have also registered improvements. Figures from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation showed last week the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts rose eight per cent to 140,700 in June, while Statistics Canada building permits figures showed that construction intentions rose 14.8 per cent in May.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/Canadian+housing+market+withstands+recession/1796829/story.html

brought by Moishe ALexander, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

By Don Lawby – President, CENTURY 21 Canada

During these first days of summer, as economists are telling us that the worst of the recession may be over, Canadians are wondering how the values of their largest financial assets – their homes – are holding up.

Media reports of real estate statistics have left many Canadian homeowners rightfully confused. The problem is that these statistics are usually based on averages of city, provincial and national markets. Such averages are pretty much irrelevant to what’s really happening in specific neighbourhoods.

Our analysis suggests that Canadian homeowners should avoid relying on city, provincial or national averages to value their homes. Instead, sellers should monitor selling prices of similar homes in their own neighbourhoods. Buyers should monitor selling prices of typical homes in the neighbourhoods where they want to live.

A cautionary tale

A number of authoritative real estate organizations issue monthly home price surveys from which price averages are extracted and extensively reported in the media. Often these organizations caution that average prices do not reflect actual prices in neighbourhoods with specific geographies and housing types, but these cautions are largely overlooked.

Here are examples that illustrate some limitations of averages.

The Toronto Real Estate Board reports that the average home price in May 2009 was $395,609 for all transactions (single and detached homes, condo apartments and condo townhouses) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The GTA is the country’s most populous urban concentration bounded by Lake Ontario on the south, Lake Simcoe on the north, Burlington on the west, and Newcastle on the east.

This average price has little relevance to prices in the specific neighbourhoods and communities in the GTA, where prices for single detached homes ranged from $1.53 million in the Toronto neighbourhood between St. Clair Avenue and Bloor Street east of Bayview Avenue; to $709,000 in a rural neighbourhood east of Newmarket; to $255,000 in Oshawa.

Average home prices

Averages themselves are largely misleading.

Suppose that in Year 1 five homes sold for $200,000, $220,000, $260,000, $290,000 and $500,000 (average $294,000), but in Year 2 only the first four homes sold (average $242,000). Statistically, this would mean that the average price of homes sold in this neighbourhood in Year 2 fell by $52,000, or 18%, from Year 1, even though all houses that were actually sold fetched identical prices to the previous year. Homeowners in this neighbourhood who didn’t carefully analyze the data would think their home values had fallen dramatically over the year, when, in fact, values of typical homes in the neighbourhood were stable.

Getting an accurate value of your home

So, the question remains: How does a Canadian homeowner determine the value of his or her existing home? Or how does a buyer determine the value of a prospective purchase?

The fact is, the Canadian housing market is made up of thousands of local housing markets that are affected by national, regional and local issues.

Local issues are many and varied. Prices of homes vary with proximity to rapid transit, shopping, parks and schools. Mountain or lakeside vistas are preferred over powerline panoramas or flight paths. Prices of homes in neighbourhoods a stone’s throw apart will vary with age, size and type of home. Homes at the base of a hill are more affordable than view homes at the top.

The most relevant housing market is the one that is closest to where you live today or want to live tomorrow. Neighbourhood surveys are more useful than city surveys, city surveys better than provincial and so on.

Most relevant are surveys of recent selling prices of similar homes on the same street or in the same neighbourhoods.

That said, it is difficult for homeowners to do their own surveys because listing prices – not selling prices – are available to the general public on the local MLS. The best course is to ask a realtor of your choice to show you statistics of selling prices of homes similar to yours in your neighbourhood. You will incur no obligation and, depending on your evaluation of the statistics you are shown, you will have a head start on your search for a realtor should you decide to sell your home.

Summary

The objective of this White Paper is to help homeowners understand the relationship between widely-reported real estate statistics and the value of their homes. We recommend that homeowners carefully scrutinize home price surveys from a variety of real estate organizations and economists. We hope this White Paper helps homeowners extract information from those surveys that is most relevant to them.

http://www.jeffreyteam.com/blog/toronto-real-estate-market/real-estate-statistics-101/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO